股票-KGB

KGB 科艺集团 

KGB: Overview  

Saturday, July 12, 2014 - KGB (Turnaround & Diversify)

An ultra high purity gas and chemical delivery solutions provider, is ready to become a major EPCC contractor.

It had bagged a sizeable EPCC contract from BASF Petronas Chemicals Sdn Bhd for Package 1 of its rm1.6 billion aromas production facility in Gebeng, Kuantan. The job has given Kelington access to the chemical processing sector.

It has pinned its hopes on also securing Packages 2 and 3, which are larger contracts.

The group has also set its sights on EPCC works in the RAPID project.

It is poised to report strong earnings in FY2014 having benefited from a recovery in its core semiconductor business and diversification efforts over the last two years (2012-2013), which saw it increasing its exposure to the healthcare, oil and gas and palm oil industries.

Following the diversification, it can now better respond to market fluctuations in the semiconductor industry.

The group went through hard times in FY2012 and Fy2013 when the semiconductor industry slowed, causing its order book to drop and its earnings to dip.

It diversified into other industries while still maintaining the semiconductor market as one of its main contributors.

KGB’s existing relationship with IHC to land more projects as the healthcare service provider has another two hospital projects in Malaysia in KLCC and Iskandar Malaysia.

It had secured a LOI for the hospital project in KLCC worth rm77 million.

The group is also intent on making renewable energy a major source of profit in the long term. It has set up a subsidiary in Papua New Guinea to provide RE services as solar which has also similar plans in Indonesia.

Its order book stood at rm188 million.

KGB is 47% owned by Palace Star Sdn Bhd. The remaining 40% is owned by others include LTH with a 12.36% stake and Sun Lead International Ltd with a 9.19%.

16 Jul : The more I study KGB, the more I attract by it.

16 Jul : JF Apex Securities starts coverage on Kellington, target price 55 sen - http://www.theedgemalaysia.com/business-news/297296-jf-apex-securities-starts-coverage-on-kellington-target-price-55-sen.html

昨晚我再看kenaga的report，发现KGB今年的成绩可能超乎我之前讲的好

27 Jul 10:53 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: Kelington Group Bhd - On Track for A Huge Turnaround

Date: 29/05/2014

Source  :      KENANGA

Stock   :      KGB             Price Target   :      0.68         |         Price Call    :      TRADING BUY

                                Last Price     :      0.415        |             Upside/Downside :       +0.265 (63.86%)

Back

- 1Q14 results within expectations. Kelington reported a 1Q14 net profit (NP) of RM2.08m which accounted for 23% and 22% of our fullyear forecast and the consensus estimates, respectively. Given the earnings visibility in FY14, we deem the results to be within expectations although the strong earnings was a tad higher than the historical 1Q NP which only made up c.7-15% of the full-year NP in the past four years (save for FY13 due to weak earnings in the 2H). On a closer look, 1Q14 NP of RM2.08m soared by c.173x QoQ and c.2.6x YoY mainly driven by the contribution from the UHP mechanical and electrical services and medical system for Kang Hui Maternity Centre Services in Shanghai (which was at 50% of total earnings).

- FY14’s earnings turnaround on track; to be supported by the strong orderbook. The decent results reaffirmed our conviction that the outstanding orderbook of c.RM175m (as of 31st March 2014) as well as the favourable tech upcycle could turn the group’s fortunes around. On a closer look, the current outstanding orderbook of c.RM175m consists of the contracts from: (i) the Ultra High Purity mechanical and electrical services and medical system for Kang Hui Maternity Center Services (Shanghai) Co (remaining value of c.RM99m), (ii) the total facilities management services to one of the world’s largest chip manufacturers (remaining value of c.RM18m), and (iii) the UHP system design for TTE Engineering (remaining value of c.RM8m). Meanwhile, the remaining contracts value of c.RM50m is contributed by other semiconductors, O&G, plantation and healthcare players. The orderbook value of c.RM175m alone is already 2.7x higher than the previous orderbook value of RM63.7m outstanding during May-2013.

- Tender book updates. While we gather that the expected rollout date for the Taiwan’s biodiesel contract (worth RM35m) has been delayed due to the longer-than-expected approval process, management remains optimistic in securing it by 2H2014. Inclusive of other tender jobs for one of Malaysia’s hospitals (c.SGD30m), the tender book value has already hit RM110m.

- A minimum 25% dividend payout policy (DPR) remains unchanged. The financing for the single largest contract - the UHP system provision for Kang Hui Maternity Center, has stretched the group’s gross gearing from 0.37x to 1.05x, but we understand that the group will still maintain its minimum 25% DPR. Even if we were to assume a conservative side 2.0 sen DPS (which implies 38% of DPR based on our FY14E EPS estimate of 5.2 sen (recall that Kelington declared a 2.0 sen DPS for FY12 and 0.5 sen DPS for FY13 which represented c.52% and c.48%% of DPR)), this could still translate to a fair c.3% net dividend yield.

- Maintain TRADING BUY with an unchanged TP of RM0.68. We leave our earnings estimates and TP of RM0.68 (based on an unchanged PER of 13.0x (close to its 1-year forward average PER)) unchanged for now. Although the share price has appreciated by 30% since our TB rating (with previous TP of RM0.52) since December 2013, we are still feeling upbeat on the group’s outlook in light of the strong orderbook as well as the technology sector upcycle.

Source: Kenanga

27 Jul 10:55 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 先说拿到的 contract value, Kenaga 说175m up to 31st March14, Ir.Gan 在annual report 说239m up to 30th June14

27 Jul 10:59 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 但他们都还没加tendering Contract worth 150m

27 Jul 11:01 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 如果说拿kenaga report 作准，175+150=325m

27 Jul 11:15 am - Goh Kian Sian: I plan to topup earlier next week

27 Jul 11:16 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: Kenaga 预测profit margin4%

27 Jul 11:17 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 325m x 4%  =13m

27 Jul 11:18 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 2m = 0.013EPS

27 Jul 11:18 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 1st results, 0.013EPS

27 Jul 11:19 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 13m = 多少EPS?

27 Jul 11:29 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 13m = 0.0845EPS,

比我之前的预测0.059还多

27 Jul 11:33 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: Kenaga用PE12做标准，

0.0845 x 12= 1.01

27 Jul 11:36 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 意思是说，一切顺利，股价值RM 1.01

27 Jul 11:38 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 但任何事情都有风险，扣除烂帐和其它因数，减20%，应该可以去到RM0.80

27 Jul 11:39 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 比我预测 0.059 x 12=RM0.708 还多

27 Jul 11:54 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 现在股价

KGB 0.415 to RM0.80(+0.385) = 93% gain

KGB WA 0.195 to 0.58 (+0.385) = 197%

27 Jul 11:57 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 如果股市没崩盘，by 明年三月尾（四个Q Results total）,预测可达到目标价

27 Jul 11:59 am - Cheng;Fong Yu: 要稳的，KGB 93%gain =1番

要冒险的，KGB WA 197% = 1.5番

27 Jul 12:03 pm - Cheng;Fong Yu: 加上KGB MD 说过他们改策略，从以前依靠“一次过合约” 改去”长期合约” from one off contact to long term maintenance contract

27 Jul 12:04 pm - Cheng;Fong Yu: 好是有稳定的生意额

27 Jul 12:09 pm - Cheng;Fong Yu: 分析股票是一种艺术。

要会诠释公司的报告，前景，管理层等等。

冷眼也说过，多算胜，少算不胜!

大胆预测，小心验证。